2021 National 4th Quarter Tracking Poll

Publication date: December 27, 2021
Written by: Stefani Buhajla

The Center for Excellence in Polling recently surveyed likely voters to gauge their opinions on important issues facing the nation. The results point to opportunity for election and welfare reform, and a bleak future for the Democratic Party, their candidates, and their policies.


The Biden administration has grown welfare programs such as unemployment insurance, food stamps, and the Child Tax Credit, but respondents indicate Americans are not interested in more dependency. More than half of all likely voters don’t think there is a general need to expand welfare programs (54%).

There were strong opinions expressed on welfare fraud and eligibility, as well:


believe at least some fraud and abuse is occurring in welfare programs. While only 22% are confident there is no fraud or abuse occurring.


of all likely voters think the length of time people can collect taxpayer-funded unemployment benefits is too long.

Election Integrity

In the wake of the 2020 election, many American voters are still leery of election processes and wonder whether their vote truly counts. Fewer than half of all voters say they completely trust election processes in their state (42%). Yet in states such as Georgia and Texas, where new election integrity reforms have been recently enacted, voter confidence has increased. There is opportunity for the Republicans to use those buoys to their advantage in 2022 elections.

Voters display an openness to reforms that improve the election process. More than half of all likely voters—including 48% of Democrats—say they would support their state passing new laws to increase transparency and security in elections (57%).

Looking Forward

Responses to questions about current leaders and future elections paint a disturbing picture that should worry Democrats as voters indicate frustration with both Congress and the executive branch.


of all likely voters say they disapprove of the job the U.S. House of Representatives is doing, including more than one-quarter of all Democrats (36%).


say they disapprove of the job the U.S. Senate is doing. It is particularly remarkable that nearly 60% of Democrats say they disapprove of the House—a chamber currently controlled by their own party.


of likely voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 51% disapprove. Notably, half of all Independent voters also disapprove. As such, we will likely see few campaign appearances from the president.

This is not a good place for Democrats to be with a midterm election just 10 months away. It’s still early, but polling shows that voters are open to looking elsewhere for policies and leadership.


all voters say they would vote for a Republican nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives if the 2022 election were today (only 39% would support a Democrat).

Looking further into the political future, nearly half of all Independents say they currently plan to vote in the Republican primary in the 2024 presidential primary election (45%). Nearly half of all voters—and nearly half of all Independents—also say they’re more likely to vote for a Republican nominee in the presidential election (45%). And remarkably, 51% of all likely voters say they’d vote for a Republican candidate over Vice President Kamala Harris, were she the Democratic nominee.

And as a testament to just how disillusioned Democrat voters are with their own party, nearly one-quarter of Democrats say they’d vote for the Republican nominee if the 2024 election were today (24%) and Vice President Kamala Harris were the nominee.